Cornyn and Paxton could each win their hotly contested Texas Senate GOP primary, a look how
Eleven months before the March primary election in Texas, Republican Sen. John Cornyn and his newly announced challenger, Attorney General Ken Paxton, are trashing each other's records.
Analysts have said the candidates must raise a lot of money to get their message out in this large state. While analysts give Cornyn the advantage in fundraising, they give Paxton the advantage when it comes to his support among the grassroots, who are more likely to vote in the primary.
"The fact that primaries tend to play to the more activist, more energized, more ideological base of a given political party gives Paxton a leg up," said SMU Political Science Professor Matthew Wilson. "I could easily see either candidate emerging, but I think Paxton feels pretty good about his chances of running this sort of insurgent campaign given the nature of the Texas Republican primary electorate. Those are exactly the people most enamored with Ken Paxton. I think he knows that. I think he realizes that gives him a realistic chance of prevailing in a primary contest. I think that's why he's thrown his hat into the ring."
Cornyn has faced multiple primary challengers during his four terms in office. But as he seeks his fifth term, he's never had to face a serious challenge like the one Paxton poses. While many in the grassroots vote in the primaries, Wilson said the Senator will need to attract Republicans who often don't vote but do show up for the general election.
"I think the challenge for Sen. Cornyn is going to be to broaden the electorate and to get more participation than you'd typically see in a primary contest. He's going to need to make this a very high engagement primary where a broad cross-section of Texas Republicans show up to vote - not just the most ideological activists," he said.
That's where Cornyn's fundraising prowess may be helpful.
"He'll spend a lot of money on getting out the vote, he'll spend a lot of money on television advertising," Wilson said. "He'll spend a lot of money really demonizing Ken Paxton, trying to paint him as a dangerous radical, corrupt because his key for retaining his seat and retaining the Republican nomination is going to paint Paxton as undesirable and outside the mainstream."
When asked if that's Cornyn's best focus and strategy to hold Paxton off, Wilson said, "I think it's really his only strategy forward."
Whoever wins the March primary will become the Republican nominee and face a Democrat. So far, former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred has said he is strongly considering running for the Cornyn seat. Allred lost to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in last year's general election.
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